Why We Are Bullish On Not Getting Liquidated

An underweighted position with an unusually attractive risk profile.

T. Bergqvist, Director of Downside (vacant) · August 2026

Surviving is a trade. It has a cost, it has a payoff, and it is currently priced as though nobody wants it.

Most risk management is described as a constraint on returns. We would like to propose the alternative framing: it is the only position in the book with a guaranteed ability to be held.

The trade

The cost of survival is legible and small. A stop-loss forgoes some upside. Lower leverage forgoes some upside. Sizing to what you can hold through a drawdown forgoes some upside.

The payoff is illegible and large. It is the entire set of future trades you get to make, which is worth nothing in any single period and everything across all of them.

This asymmetry is why the trade is cheap. Its benefits do not appear in the reporting period in which its costs are paid.

Sizing

We are maximally allocated to not getting liquidated. This is our largest position and, we believe, our most contrarian one.

Risks to the thesis

The principal risk is that we get bored. Historically this has been sufficient.

T. Bergqvist is a fictional analyst. This report is satire and describes no real person, fund, or position.

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Nothing in this report is financial advice and no figure here predicts a price. The arithmetic is real; the conviction is ours. Use your situational awareness.