Risk Management
Our risk management framework is comprehensive, quantitative, and continuously monitored. Below is the current state of the book.
Every figure in the panel below is invented and is a joke. Nothing in it is a measurement, a position, a claim about any real fund, or a statement about $SITCHY. The only live numbers on this website are on the terminal, which labels its sources.
Committee readouts — all values invented
Risk management score
Leverage
Probability of catastrophic loss
Confidence
Time spent on downside scenarios
The final two readouts are internally inconsistent. The committee has reviewed this and voted to keep both.
Status: SITUATIONALLY AWARE
The committee assesses that it is situationally aware. The committee is composed entirely of people who hold this view. No dissent has been recorded, which the committee interprets as consensus rather than as a sampling problem.
The policy
Our risk management strategy is simple.
Don’t lose $30 billion.
This has held up well. We have never lost $30 billion. We attribute this to the policy, and not to any other feature of our circumstances.
Three rules. One page. It is not enough, and the document says so.
What actual risk management would look like
Since the rest of this page is a joke, this section is not. If you are levered, four things are true regardless of your thesis:
- There is a price at which the position stops being yours. It is computable in advance from your leverage and the maintenance margin. At 4x it is about a 24.6% move against you. Compute it before you open the position, not during.
- A stop-loss only helps if it triggers before that level. A 30% stop on a 4x position is decorative. Our simulator will show you whether yours is real.
- Liquidity is a claim about the next fifteen minutes. The size you can exit in a calm market is not the size you can exit in the market where you want to.
- Size to what you can hold through a drawdown you did not forecast. Every drawdown that has ever mattered was one nobody forecast. That is what made it matter.
None of this is advice about what to buy. It is arithmetic about what happens after you buy it. Run the numbers →
Nothing on this page is financial advice and no figure here predicts a price. The arithmetic is real; the conviction is ours. Use your situational awareness.